What's an absorption rate you ask? Absorption rates are another way of looking at supply and demand in our market, or how long it will take for the market to "absorb" the inventory. Most Real Estate Professionals will calculate absorption rates in months, however I like to use weeks. To me it's easier to wrap your head around 7 weeks instead of 1.7 months, but either way the number has the same meaning. What do they matter to the consumer? If you were selling your home, and the absorption rate indicated a much higher supply in your area than other parts of the County, then you'll need to make your home stand out even more to capture the few Buyers out there. For Buyers, it becomes less critical unless they're undecided on which area they will purchase a home. The higher the supply, the more inventory and the more likely they'll be able to satisfy all their criteria and likely have an improved bargaining position. I calculated absorption rates for most of Clatsop County, and included residential homes for sale only.

For reference, many experts have said that a 6 month or in this case 24 week supply is a balanced market. I'll also caution you that in a small market such as ours here on the Oregon Coast, taking small snapshots can be misleading at times.

Absorption Rates, in # of weeks.

Astoria: 70.08

Gearhart: 82.25

Warrenton/Hammond: 50.62

Seaside: 326.59

Cannon Beach: 108.70

Clatsop County Overall: 91.87

Here's some up to date stats on the market in Clatsop County. It includes Astoria and the rest of the county's homes for sale.

Period 1.1.08 - 2.18.08:

New- 132
Pended- 45
Sold- 27

Same period 2007:

New- 125
Pended- 49
Sold- 37

Same period 2006:

New- 106
Pended- 59
Sold- 52

The change in the real estate market here that began Jan. 2nd has been incredible. It might just my business, but the attitude of Buyers seems to be better and more confident in the market. I thought I might pull some stats from the Clatsop MLS to back up my theory, but the numbers are to the contrary. I only pulled solds for the 97103 zip, which includes not only the city of Astoria proper but also Knappa, Svensen, Olney, Walluski, Lewis & Clark, Youngs River and John Day.

Residential Solds for 97103:

November '07- 20

December '07- 15

January '08- 5


One thing to keep in mind is there's a 30-45 day lag in activity from contract to close. So, the low number of closed transactions in January would coincide with the very slow and storm ravaged December. My instinct tells me that February will be much better and the action we're seeing now will result in the number of closed transactions increasing in the next few months.